Saturday, October 11, 2008

How Many Illegal Aliens?


How Many Illegal Aliens?
 FAIR estimates that in 2007 the illegal alien population is above 13 million persons. Government and academic estimates indicate that as of 2006 there were 11 to 12 million illegal aliens living in the United States. The Center for Immigration Studies estimated the illegal alien population at 10 million as of November 2004.

It is difficult to have an exact figure because the illegal nature of their presence prevents any enumeration, but the U.S. Census Bureau estimated 8.7 million illegal aliens were here in 2000, and immigration officials estimate that the illegal alien population grows by as many as 500,000 every year.

Estimated Distribution of the Illegal Alien Population

The nationalities of the illegal alien population in the Census Bureau estimate and INS estimate for 2000 are as follow:
Region/Country
CB Est.
INS Est.
North and Central America
5,312,990
Mexico
3,871,912
4,808,000
Cuba
216,297
Dominican Republic
17,942
91,000
El Salvador
336,717
189,000
Guatemala
238,977
144,000
Canada
156,231
47,000
Haiti
48,003
76,000
Honduras
138,000
Jamaica
37,666
Trinidad & Tobago
44,178
Otr N&C America
345,067
South America
624,419
Argentina
35,958
Brazil
77,000
Colombia
174,786
141,000
Ecuador
105,197
108,000
Peru
68,174
61,000
Otr S America
240,304
Europe
1,113,683
France
36,477
Germany
113,327
Greece
15,507
Ireland
-2,233
Italy
62,456
Netherlands
17,885
Poland
92,684
Portugal
33,874
Spain
23,816
U.S.S.R. (incl. Est., Lat., Lith.)
344,877
United Kingdom
123,246
Yugoslavia
110,280
Other Europe
141,487
Asia
1,363,419
Middle East
114,818
Iran
30,823
Israel
24,372
Otr M E (incl. Afghanistan)
59,623
South & East Asia
1,248,601
China (incl. Taiwan)
226,886
115,000
India
200,306
70,000
Japan
118,357
Korea
182,621
55,000
Philippines
155,239
85,000
Otr S&E Asia
365,192
Africa
243,342
Oceania
47,568
Australia
16,777
Other Oceania
30,791
All Other
795,000
Total
8,705,421
7,000,000
The estimate by the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) issued in February 2003 put the number of resident illegal aliens at seven million (as of Jan. 2000), 4.8 million of whom were Mexican and 2.2 million of whom resided in California. That estimate included the annual rate of increase in the illegal alien population -- 350,000 with 73,200 (31.6%) of that annual increase taking up residence in California. So, by 2003, the illegal alien population would have increased to over eight million.
The method by which the INS arrived at this estimate was based on data collected as a result of the 1986 amnesty and then relied on Census data and INS legal immigration data and airline arrival/departure records for updating the estimate. The estimate included only aliens who continued to reside illegally in the United States for more than one year. Left out of the estimate were aliens doing seasonal work illegally in the United States and all aliens during the first year of overstaying the terms of an authorized nonimmigrant entry, as well groups of illegal alien residents who were issued work permits under programs such as Temporary Protected Status (TPS).
The 2000 Census, like all previous censuses, made no attempt to determine the immigration status of foreign-born residents. Nevertheless, the results of the Census did contribute to a re-evaluation of the size of the illegal alien population. Most analysts agree that the illegal alien population now numbers more than 10-11 million persons as is shown below.
The first estimates that challenged the INS estimates appeared from labor force researchers at Northeastern University.[1] They estimated in 2001 that the illegal alien population could be as large as 11 million. They later revised that estimate upward to 12 million.
The director of the Census Bureau, when asked about the much higher estimate of the illegal alien population agreed that the 2000 Census data indicated that the illegal alien estimate of the INS was too low, but did not offer a different estimate.
In the August 2001 issue of Demography, immigration researchers estimated the current total population of illegal aliens at 7.1 million, of whom 3.9 million were Mexicans. Also in August, a demographer at the Urban Institute issued an estimate that the illegal alien population was 8.5 million, with 4.5 million of them being Mexican.
The Census Bureau issued an estimate in January 2002 that the illegal alien population in 2000 was 8,705,421. That estimate was based on the discrepancy between the number of foreign-born residents and the number of legally admitted immigrants. Included in that number may be aliens residing in the United States under provisions that preclude their deportation, but who are not legal permanent residents, such as beneficiaries of Section 245(i) petitions, or asylees who have not been in the country long enough for adjustment of status, or Central American beneficiaries of the NACARA legislation. The Census Bureau estimate is preliminary and subject to modification after review of the methodology by interested parties.
An independent estimate by analysts of the bear-Stearns investment firm said the illegal alien population “…may be as high as 20 million people.”[2] This estimate dismisses lower official estimates as being flawed by the non-response of illegal alien to census takers. However, this conclusion misses the fact that the official estimates are instead based on a comparison between the growth in the foreign-born population and new legal immigrant arrivals. This allows the trend in the illegal alien population to be observed despite non-response in the Census.
TIME Magazine in a feature article in 2004 published an estimate of three million illegal aliens arriving each year.[3] However, that estimate was based on a mistaken assumption that a million illegal aliens are being apprehended each year and three times as many avoid apprehension. The actual number of persons apprehended is considerably lower than one million because the same individual often may be apprehended multiple times during the year.
The following table shows estimates of the illegal alien population by state by the INS, DHS[4] and the Pew Hispanic Center[5] as well as the current estimates by FAIR. (Numbers are thousands).
State
INS'92
INS'96
INS'00
DHS'05
DHS'06
Pew'02-4
Pew'05
FAIR'07
Ala.
3
4
24
28
40
55
Aka.
2
4
5
5
5
10
Ariz.
95
115
283
480
500
500
425
475
Ark.
4
5
27
28
40
50
Cal.
1,600
2,000
2,209
2,770
2,830
2,400
2,625
3,470
Col.
35
45
144
225
250
270
Ct.
22
29
39
70
85
115
Del.
2
3
7
28
23
20
D.C.
21
30
10
28
25
35
Fla.
270
350
337
850
980
850
863
810
Ga.
26
32
228
470
490
225
400
440
Hi.
6
9
2
28
28
30
Idaho
12
16
19
28
35
35
Ill.
220
290
432
520
550
400
400
775
Ind.
11
14
45
70
70
110
Iowa
5
6
24
70
70
55
Kans.
15
20
47
70
55
90
Ky.
5
6
15
28
45
40
La.
18
22
5
28
35
25
Maine
2
3
3
5
5
5
Md.
33
44
56
225
250
150
Mass.
65
85
87
225
200
250
Mich.
28
37
70
125
125
200
Minn.
6
7
60
70
88
125
Miss.
3
4
8
28
40
20
Mo.
12
16
22
70
50
65
Mont.
1
1
2
5
5
5
Neb.
6
8
24
28
45
45
Nev.
19
24
101
240
125
175
170
N.H.
2
2
2
5
20
15
N.J.
105
135
221
380
430
350
388
490
N.M.
29
37
39
70
63
70
N.Y.
410
540
489
560
540
650
600
1,110
N.C.
20
22
206
360
370
300
350
385
N.D.
1
1
2
5
5
5
Ohio
18
23
40
125
111
115
Okla.
17
21
46
70
63
85
Ore.
27
33
90
125
150
170
Pa.
27
37
49
125
150
140
R.I.
9
12
16
28
30
35
S.C.
4
5
36
28
55
75
S.D.
1
1
2
5
5
5
Tenn.
10
13
46
125
125
100
Texas
530
700
1,041
1,360
1,640
1,400
1,500
1,740
Utah
13
15
65
70
83
125
Vt.
2
3
2
5
5
5
Va.
42
55
103
225
275
205
Wash.
42
52
136
280
225
225
255
W.V.
2
2
2
5
5
5
Wis.
6
8
41
125
93
90
Wyo.
1
2
2
5
5
5
Total
3,865
4,947
7,013
10,760
11,550
10,080
10,803
13,175
Amnesty proposals for granting legal residence to these illegal aliens take various forms, and the number of proposed beneficiaries vary depending on the proposal. For example, in the 1986 general amnesty, illegal aliens other than those in agricultural work were eligible only if they had been living in the United States for four years (since 1982). Thus, the nearly three million beneficiaries did not include illegal aliens who had arrived during the previous four years (unless they presented fraudulent evidence of having arrived earlier, as many of them did).
Although the number of illegal aliens in the country can only be estimated, and it is unclear what form currently proposed amnesty provisions might take, it is safe from the above analysis to conclude that any new amnesty would likely involve as many as four times as many illegal aliens as benefited from the 1986 amnesty.
Updated 10/2007

[1]"Feds Undercount Illegal Aliens," NewsMax.com, (March 16, 2001).
[2] Robert Justich and Betty Ng, “The Underground Labor Force is Rising to the Surface,” Bear Sterns, January 3, 2005.
[3]Barlett, Donald and James Steele, ”Who Left the Door Open?,” TIME Magazine, September 12, 2004.
[4]The most recent estimates by DHS only show the estimate for the 10 states with the largest illegal alien population
[5] Pew Hispanic Center estimates of the illegal immigration population are stated as a range, e.g., California 2.5 million to 2.75 million.  The chart shows the mid-point of the estimate, e.g. California 2.625 million.